* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 09/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 47 46 44 39 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 47 46 44 39 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 25 22 19 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 18 16 12 10 4 3 13 10 21 22 25 SHEAR DIR 53 56 61 80 80 81 147 202 216 228 208 233 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.7 26.6 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 151 149 143 131 116 110 104 97 88 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 77 78 79 74 75 69 66 62 57 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 82 70 69 72 70 79 67 53 43 48 37 46 200 MB DIV 56 58 53 40 58 13 10 15 20 -6 0 19 27 LAND (KM) 453 444 441 436 444 568 567 716 854 1000 1047 1063 985 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.4 106.1 107.1 108.0 110.4 113.1 116.1 118.8 121.0 122.4 123.3 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 14 14 14 12 9 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 20. 22. 23. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 19. 18. 13. 9. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 22. 21. 19. 14. 10. 6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY