* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * HANNA AL082008 09/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 39 39 37 33 30 31 32 34 33 23 V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 31 34 32 32 29 29 30 32 31 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 36 32 31 33 31 31 28 27 28 32 38 43 SHEAR (KTS) 16 21 30 32 36 58 80 97 84 54 31 22 33 SHEAR DIR 212 207 201 201 212 238 247 255 257 254 233 203 182 SST (C) 26.5 24.1 22.5 20.8 15.5 17.1 13.3 15.1 14.2 13.8 13.9 13.4 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 103 94 88 76 79 73 75 74 73 71 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 93 87 82 73 75 70 71 71 70 68 63 61 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 -50.9 -48.7 -48.5 -48.9 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 53 49 48 49 44 44 40 42 50 68 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 24 24 24 22 20 20 23 24 24 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 31 20 82 56 24 70 133 179 258 283 218 200 MB DIV 78 111 119 123 113 65 44 2 12 44 56 53 49 LAND (KM) -137 -80 -57 -25 64 23 113 733 1397 995 524 387 331 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 37.7 39.7 41.6 43.4 47.1 49.6 50.6 51.2 53.1 56.6 58.5 59.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 76.6 75.0 72.0 68.9 60.6 52.0 43.3 33.9 25.0 16.8 12.4 11.0 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 26 29 32 33 29 29 29 29 22 10 5 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 22 CX,CY: 6/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 12. 10. 10. 11. 9. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -12. -15. -14. -13. -11. -12. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -12. -15. -14. -13. -11. -12. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :4999.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY