* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 93 94 96 103 107 107 108 109 106 108 104 V (KT) LAND 95 93 93 94 96 103 78 55 42 45 42 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 91 90 90 92 76 53 41 48 58 67 71 SHEAR (KTS) 23 20 11 9 9 4 7 4 5 12 14 14 13 SHEAR DIR 20 23 1 345 18 286 2 325 352 305 309 298 315 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 154 152 154 160 164 167 169 168 165 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 145 144 143 144 149 150 150 151 148 143 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -51.3 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 63 64 65 66 65 64 62 64 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 16 17 18 22 24 24 26 28 27 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -61 -52 -42 -28 11 38 61 60 74 79 90 55 200 MB DIV -9 6 9 1 30 28 22 12 25 50 40 50 58 LAND (KM) 323 237 194 172 144 30 -30 -45 -22 82 205 317 346 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 69.1 70.4 71.7 72.9 75.4 77.8 79.8 81.3 82.8 84.3 85.3 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 80 74 72 35 70 39 9999 9999 9999 77 81 125 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -5. -7. -7. -4. 0. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 6. 8. 9. 8. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 9. 13. 13. 15. 17. 14. 15. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -1. 1. 8. 12. 12. 13. 14. 11. 13. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY