* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 09/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 48 50 47 43 36 29 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 48 50 47 43 36 29 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 25 22 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 18 16 16 15 5 4 11 18 29 37 45 SHEAR DIR 64 67 79 76 75 82 107 191 216 192 200 203 207 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 26.6 25.4 24.1 23.3 22.4 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 151 150 147 141 130 117 103 94 85 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 79 79 80 79 73 72 70 67 64 58 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 69 65 72 64 69 70 59 36 40 22 31 34 200 MB DIV 63 51 38 41 37 0 0 19 21 9 8 11 16 LAND (KM) 483 463 452 443 464 549 542 640 700 767 752 654 507 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.3 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.6 24.0 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.0 106.7 107.6 108.5 110.7 113.0 115.4 117.3 118.9 119.8 120.0 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 15. 9. 2. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 25. 22. 18. 11. 4. -5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED