* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * HANNA AL082008 09/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 37 35 33 32 33 30 28 26 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 34 35 31 30 32 33 30 28 26 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 36 33 34 30 31 30 27 26 27 29 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 21 29 36 38 42 65 83 81 62 45 33 29 32 SHEAR DIR 206 206 216 221 223 242 248 253 255 244 227 211 193 SST (C) 24.1 22.6 20.8 14.9 15.3 15.4 12.8 16.1 13.9 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 103 95 88 75 76 75 72 76 72 72 70 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 87 82 73 73 72 70 72 70 69 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -52.0 -51.3 -49.0 -47.6 -48.1 -49.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 46 46 46 45 43 43 45 53 59 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 22 21 20 21 27 28 26 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 18 74 81 49 45 117 190 221 261 197 102 200 MB DIV 108 111 121 103 103 55 33 23 18 54 86 58 65 LAND (KM) -92 -3 -31 95 -13 -63 429 1066 1327 797 487 361 248 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.7 41.6 43.4 45.2 48.1 49.6 50.5 51.5 53.5 56.5 58.4 59.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 74.4 72.0 68.2 64.3 55.8 47.3 38.5 29.6 22.1 16.2 12.0 8.9 STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 30 33 33 31 29 28 26 23 19 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 9999 0 9999 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 23 CX,CY: 12/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 14. 12. 10. 10. 11. 9. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -15. -17. -19. -23. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -15. -17. -19. -23. -33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2499.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY