* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 118 120 121 125 128 125 122 115 114 113 107 V (KT) LAND 115 118 118 120 121 125 73 52 47 40 40 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 117 115 114 115 69 50 49 61 72 80 83 SHEAR (KTS) 18 7 11 5 4 2 4 5 6 12 10 9 16 SHEAR DIR 26 346 316 330 17 307 78 317 27 326 311 285 336 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 152 153 152 157 162 166 167 168 168 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 143 143 143 146 150 152 150 147 146 144 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 60 63 66 64 66 63 65 62 65 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 22 21 23 27 27 29 28 34 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -37 -27 -10 24 40 77 63 83 71 91 73 87 200 MB DIV 6 16 13 35 55 2 33 -27 42 25 49 7 25 LAND (KM) 226 184 155 138 91 0 -24 -54 28 141 226 325 382 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.2 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 70.3 71.5 72.8 74.1 76.5 78.5 80.5 82.2 83.5 84.3 85.3 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 10 8 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 74 43 70 67 0 9999 9999 75 69 88 116 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -19. -26. -31. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -4. 0. 3. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 12. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 11. 9. 3. 2. 0. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 5. 6. 11. 13. 10. 7. 0. -1. -2. -8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY