* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 09/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 50 52 50 46 40 34 26 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 50 52 50 46 40 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 19 16 15 6 2 7 8 18 26 32 35 SHEAR DIR 67 79 91 73 65 73 289 215 245 202 218 210 221 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.3 26.2 24.8 23.9 23.3 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 153 148 138 126 111 100 93 86 81 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 80 78 76 71 72 68 65 60 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 64 71 67 68 77 77 63 38 39 19 20 21 200 MB DIV 51 39 51 48 20 15 8 25 21 0 3 5 17 LAND (KM) 395 372 358 360 398 483 508 630 741 799 759 669 571 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.5 106.2 107.2 108.2 110.7 113.4 115.9 118.1 119.4 119.9 119.8 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 9 6 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 23. 19. 13. 6. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 25. 27. 25. 21. 15. 9. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY