* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 47 46 42 40 36 30 28 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 50 41 41 36 33 30 24 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 49 40 35 35 30 27 26 27 30 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 40 44 55 79 92 72 53 40 32 34 36 SHEAR DIR 205 218 221 228 236 246 254 255 247 213 186 185 176 SST (C) 22.6 20.7 15.4 15.0 16.9 13.3 15.3 15.4 13.9 14.5 13.8 13.5 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 95 88 76 76 78 73 74 74 72 72 70 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 82 73 73 75 70 71 70 69 68 66 64 62 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -50.6 -48.0 -46.3 -47.1 -49.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 43 41 40 44 47 50 59 61 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 20 20 20 24 27 27 27 24 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 10 17 69 68 54 35 69 126 162 203 248 184 53 200 MB DIV 95 80 89 94 57 62 -1 33 36 88 65 66 23 LAND (KM) -16 6 97 -34 12 107 741 1321 1160 692 443 331 297 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 41.4 43.2 44.9 46.6 48.9 49.4 50.4 52.1 54.3 56.9 58.9 60.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.6 71.6 68.5 64.5 60.4 51.6 42.9 34.9 27.3 20.6 14.8 11.1 8.9 STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 31 33 33 30 27 26 24 22 17 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 9. 8. 9. 11. 8. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -19. -21. -25. -35. -48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -14. -20. -22. -27. -36. -50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY