* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 119 121 123 124 125 123 119 114 112 107 104 V (KT) LAND 115 117 119 121 123 97 65 47 44 38 37 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 115 119 119 117 116 94 62 45 48 60 69 75 77 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 8 3 4 7 1 7 6 13 11 21 9 SHEAR DIR 333 299 332 15 173 358 205 347 316 294 299 331 1 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 152 160 164 167 169 169 164 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 142 143 142 149 151 153 152 150 143 138 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.2 -50.8 -49.7 -50.0 -49.7 -49.8 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 65 60 64 65 66 65 67 64 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 26 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 36 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -27 -3 25 33 58 78 72 83 84 98 80 67 200 MB DIV 4 27 37 58 18 7 11 -2 46 22 30 35 -7 LAND (KM) 173 155 133 115 49 -28 -34 -32 45 185 302 365 340 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.3 24.3 25.6 26.3 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.4 72.5 73.8 75.0 77.4 79.4 81.3 83.1 84.3 85.1 86.1 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 76 52 69 67 55 9999 9999 9999 47 77 103 64 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -12. -19. -26. -30. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 1. -1. -5. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -3. -8. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY