* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN EP132008 09/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 51 55 57 56 51 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 51 55 57 56 51 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 35 34 33 31 28 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 23 21 21 18 19 13 14 8 10 12 17 19 18 SHEAR DIR 70 80 95 103 91 108 103 105 107 154 151 181 172 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.6 25.6 24.8 24.1 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 149 145 137 129 118 108 101 97 94 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 82 79 78 76 74 71 69 68 62 58 53 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 13 17 17 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 71 73 67 71 72 52 26 27 22 19 26 200 MB DIV 45 40 39 29 25 4 17 26 19 -4 -13 10 -6 LAND (KM) 411 403 398 443 498 519 569 670 694 695 679 620 515 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.5 108.5 109.5 111.7 113.8 115.6 117.0 117.7 118.1 117.9 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 19. 14. 8. 2. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 27. 26. 21. 15. 9. 3. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 THIRTEEN 09/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 THIRTEEN 09/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED