* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * HANNA AL082008 09/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 42 41 40 42 35 30 29 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 38 36 36 37 30 26 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 43 39 33 32 28 26 26 29 34 37 38 SHEAR (KTS) 39 40 45 56 67 92 90 64 42 31 28 24 23 SHEAR DIR 213 218 231 238 241 246 251 251 233 202 180 176 165 SST (C) 20.5 14.9 14.9 17.1 15.7 13.0 15.6 12.8 13.8 14.3 13.5 12.8 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 87 75 75 78 75 72 75 71 71 71 68 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 72 72 74 72 69 71 69 68 67 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.6 -50.7 -48.9 -47.6 -46.3 -47.5 -50.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 43 44 45 46 47 58 63 66 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 21 20 20 26 24 21 22 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 70 69 56 55 36 108 172 208 247 251 137 -10 200 MB DIV 92 87 95 62 70 20 19 11 49 61 50 53 -86 LAND (KM) -34 88 4 -4 -67 330 946 1479 917 535 413 415 617 LAT (DEG N) 41.7 43.5 45.2 46.7 48.2 49.9 50.9 52.2 53.8 55.8 58.1 60.6 63.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 68.2 64.7 60.7 56.7 48.9 40.3 32.0 24.0 17.7 13.0 11.1 11.1 STM SPEED (KT) 29 31 31 31 29 27 27 26 23 19 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9999 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 31 CX,CY: 22/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 17. 15. 13. 13. 14. 11. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -10. -15. -16. -22. -32. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -10. -15. -16. -22. -32. -45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2499.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED