* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 118 121 123 127 124 123 119 117 113 107 100 V (KT) LAND 115 115 118 121 88 70 49 45 41 39 35 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 112 112 84 65 49 45 58 69 77 80 79 SHEAR (KTS) 16 6 4 2 6 5 8 4 12 13 16 21 16 SHEAR DIR 301 308 298 306 311 309 320 41 307 336 319 347 359 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 157 164 168 169 169 166 164 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 143 143 147 152 154 153 151 146 143 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 66 59 61 65 62 67 66 66 64 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 24 25 26 25 27 25 27 27 31 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -7 22 28 37 78 64 76 71 89 63 61 22 200 MB DIV 6 34 53 6 1 58 -22 24 -1 62 23 5 29 LAND (KM) 155 133 85 25 -24 29 -33 20 136 273 388 354 245 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.3 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.9 74.1 75.4 76.6 78.9 80.7 82.5 84.1 85.4 86.3 87.8 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 70 66 16 9999 42 9999 35 69 134 136 55 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -11. -18. -25. -30. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 9. 8. 4. 2. -2. -8. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 9. 8. 4. 2. -2. -8. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED