* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 59 62 59 55 52 42 34 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 59 62 59 55 52 42 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 45 47 48 48 46 42 38 34 30 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 16 13 10 7 10 13 22 21 20 19 25 SHEAR DIR 67 83 93 78 81 84 98 79 92 98 132 136 144 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.4 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 146 140 135 131 129 127 115 108 107 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 75 74 73 74 73 72 67 50 42 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 16 18 18 18 17 16 18 17 15 16 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 75 71 80 77 77 82 75 55 26 -3 14 17 29 200 MB DIV 51 30 25 30 15 21 31 35 26 -1 12 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 374 406 465 527 530 544 614 653 656 656 655 671 671 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.7 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.8 108.9 109.9 110.9 112.7 114.2 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.9 117.4 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 8 5 2 2 5 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 8. 6. 7. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 26. 29. 32. 28. 22. 19. 9. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 27. 24. 20. 17. 7. -1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY