* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 117 119 121 125 126 121 120 117 111 107 102 V (KT) LAND 115 115 117 119 86 59 44 42 40 38 32 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 113 113 85 58 43 54 69 80 85 86 84 SHEAR (KTS) 12 6 4 4 4 1 8 5 16 14 14 15 13 SHEAR DIR 286 356 200 10 38 195 42 322 320 329 346 338 45 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 156 161 166 168 169 169 162 162 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 142 146 151 154 153 153 150 140 140 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -50.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 10 8 10 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 64 66 60 61 62 60 67 65 64 62 65 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 28 27 27 27 29 26 32 34 34 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR -10 15 29 45 60 78 75 81 81 94 63 54 29 200 MB DIV 30 42 45 23 29 0 0 43 33 2 17 -23 30 LAND (KM) 122 88 23 -3 -39 -30 -29 108 274 405 396 296 211 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.0 20.9 21.2 21.4 22.0 22.8 23.8 24.9 25.7 26.0 26.5 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.4 77.6 79.9 81.8 83.5 85.0 86.3 87.3 88.6 90.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 70 66 24 5 9999 9999 9999 68 132 118 79 36 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -3. -10. -18. -25. -30. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 4. 5. 5. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 9. 7. 3. -3. -6. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 6. 5. 2. -4. -8. -13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY