* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 41 47 51 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 41 47 51 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 43 48 54 59 63 65 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 4 3 4 5 4 3 10 8 13 17 16 SHEAR DIR 230 246 197 177 182 196 295 278 296 276 276 279 291 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 127 129 131 130 129 131 133 138 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 117 119 120 120 119 118 119 121 126 128 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 53 51 48 49 50 49 51 50 47 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -4 -12 -27 -49 -61 -68 -54 -44 -29 -21 0 200 MB DIV -5 22 10 -14 -25 -26 -3 1 4 -20 -2 -18 -6 LAND (KM) 1844 1821 1798 1778 1766 1745 1680 1557 1431 1274 1101 946 783 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.0 43.0 44.0 45.0 46.9 48.7 50.4 52.2 53.8 55.5 57.0 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 17 20 19 23 27 23 26 33 41 50 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY