* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 112 115 119 120 122 119 119 115 107 99 95 V (KT) LAND 110 110 112 88 72 51 51 47 47 43 35 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 108 88 71 51 52 67 81 89 89 85 80 SHEAR (KTS) 13 3 5 3 3 5 2 7 11 19 24 22 15 SHEAR DIR 284 202 297 33 160 304 46 317 321 313 354 12 3 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 155 161 163 166 167 169 167 162 161 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 145 151 152 152 151 150 147 141 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -50.4 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 60 62 59 63 62 65 64 65 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 27 25 27 25 28 27 32 34 33 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 19 43 51 63 79 69 85 78 92 63 69 41 49 200 MB DIV 33 52 34 44 35 -8 34 10 43 10 18 -10 19 LAND (KM) 93 46 4 -19 -34 -33 54 171 312 445 326 245 216 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 80.8 82.6 84.2 85.6 86.9 88.0 89.5 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 44 14 0 9999 9999 87 74 153 108 50 34 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -8. -15. -22. -26. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 4. 5. 4. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 11. 11. 5. -3. -10. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 5. 9. 10. 12. 9. 9. 5. -3. -11. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY