* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 44 41 39 34 29 24 21 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 44 41 39 34 29 24 21 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 49 49 48 46 44 41 38 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 16 14 11 8 4 14 13 24 14 17 5 SHEAR DIR 68 59 72 75 70 105 70 114 111 135 152 159 191 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 145 141 136 131 127 125 125 125 126 127 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 76 74 75 76 75 71 60 52 47 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 74 67 76 62 40 27 16 21 27 43 31 200 MB DIV 54 29 25 18 24 41 11 30 11 13 -5 13 -4 LAND (KM) 409 454 489 459 447 456 457 460 439 380 279 209 168 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.3 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.9 113.6 114.1 114.3 114.1 113.4 112.9 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 4 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 9. 6. 2. -5. -13. -17. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY