* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 108 113 116 118 118 117 116 112 107 102 97 V (KT) LAND 105 105 80 65 56 42 43 42 41 36 32 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 80 65 55 42 50 63 75 83 85 84 82 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 3 5 2 8 3 9 14 16 16 14 11 SHEAR DIR 213 284 31 41 193 19 224 336 290 353 23 27 30 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 161 162 164 167 169 168 166 165 163 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 150 150 151 153 152 149 146 144 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.3 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 59 62 62 62 62 60 60 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 24 25 27 25 27 26 30 34 33 36 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 55 69 79 64 79 70 75 56 47 31 23 200 MB DIV 20 39 43 38 32 1 44 20 6 -10 -33 10 4 LAND (KM) 42 7 -39 -17 -36 -32 82 195 317 439 307 244 239 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.4 26.9 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.4 77.6 78.7 79.7 81.6 83.3 84.8 86.0 87.2 88.6 90.1 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 8 9999 2 9999 9999 74 92 156 102 37 42 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -5. -12. -18. -22. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 8. 11. 14. 14. 13. 13. 7. 3. -1. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 3. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 7. 2. -3. -8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY