* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 53 61 65 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 53 61 65 69 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 56 65 74 80 83 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 5 9 12 0 2 5 0 7 9 12 13 SHEAR DIR 200 4 21 73 91 8 31 340 322 285 251 268 261 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 130 131 134 134 135 138 142 145 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 120 122 123 124 125 126 128 131 133 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 53 49 49 49 50 50 51 53 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 6 4 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -2 -15 -25 -31 -45 -20 -9 0 4 6 1 200 MB DIV 6 -11 -9 0 -7 -11 -3 9 -3 7 -10 14 -39 LAND (KM) 1760 1716 1679 1653 1634 1557 1446 1289 1163 996 820 636 491 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.5 44.5 45.5 46.5 48.4 50.3 52.4 54.4 56.3 58.0 59.8 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 21 27 21 27 38 46 43 44 70 61 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 20. 28. 36. 41. 44. 47. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 19. 28. 36. 40. 44. 47. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY