* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 41 40 39 37 36 32 28 25 25 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 41 40 39 37 36 32 28 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 38 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 18 13 12 12 15 9 11 10 14 11 15 15 12 SHEAR DIR 63 79 73 63 91 143 93 107 124 168 130 170 141 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 142 139 134 129 127 127 129 130 134 136 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 4 3 5 4 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 69 64 53 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 61 65 65 52 25 14 24 24 34 32 36 200 MB DIV 30 16 13 11 24 27 9 -2 14 7 14 15 23 LAND (KM) 471 494 452 420 401 408 416 393 330 258 175 124 94 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.4 112.0 113.0 113.5 113.7 113.4 112.9 112.3 111.8 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -17. -20. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY