* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 104 107 108 116 114 116 110 107 104 99 94 V (KT) LAND 100 80 66 56 48 47 46 48 41 38 35 30 25 V (KT) LGE mod 100 79 65 55 47 46 59 72 81 84 83 82 81 SHEAR (KTS) 10 2 2 9 9 1 9 8 23 15 14 15 13 SHEAR DIR 279 354 166 236 277 15 307 296 327 341 8 30 341 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 166 167 169 169 166 164 165 163 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 153 153 153 154 152 146 143 144 143 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -49.4 -48.8 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 56 54 59 59 64 62 65 64 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 26 26 26 29 27 33 31 33 36 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 58 64 56 68 71 74 61 55 28 88 81 200 MB DIV 13 33 27 6 1 43 5 18 -2 26 4 34 5 LAND (KM) -5 -47 -18 -36 -55 28 166 314 417 355 233 169 155 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.3 26.0 27.0 27.7 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.9 79.1 80.1 81.0 82.8 84.6 86.1 87.2 88.4 90.0 91.5 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 15 9999 9999 33 75 150 108 39 39 55 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 4. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 11. 18. 17. 18. 10. 7. 5. 0. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 8. 16. 14. 16. 10. 7. 4. -1. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED