* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 57 65 72 77 79 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 57 65 72 77 79 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 49 58 68 78 85 87 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 10 8 5 4 5 6 5 4 10 13 17 SHEAR DIR 358 315 59 91 98 34 325 24 256 268 248 249 253 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 130 131 132 134 137 138 140 143 144 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 122 122 123 125 129 129 130 132 132 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 47 51 48 53 53 51 57 58 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -10 -15 -18 -32 -22 -2 7 28 30 33 23 200 MB DIV -14 -4 7 9 8 1 -8 22 27 28 29 21 19 LAND (KM) 1716 1674 1639 1606 1577 1494 1328 1175 1070 920 765 618 485 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.4 45.4 46.4 47.3 49.2 51.3 53.4 55.3 57.0 58.5 60.0 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 28 26 24 35 56 51 38 57 67 60 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 23. 32. 41. 47. 52. 55. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 32. 40. 47. 52. 54. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED