* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 46 44 41 36 32 27 24 21 18 20 V (KT) LAND 50 50 48 46 44 41 36 32 27 24 21 19 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 52 52 49 46 43 40 37 35 30 34 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 22 22 17 8 13 13 21 15 24 12 10 SHEAR DIR 67 64 66 88 112 110 116 142 146 134 156 195 164 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.6 28.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 139 135 130 127 124 126 129 138 146 155 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 75 71 72 70 64 59 55 53 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 70 72 57 38 27 21 25 22 39 39 52 200 MB DIV 27 39 29 11 22 12 31 2 25 13 31 0 43 LAND (KM) 534 488 457 444 447 447 376 307 247 174 46 -14 40 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.3 22.7 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.0 113.7 113.8 113.6 113.1 112.5 111.7 111.0 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -14. -20. -24. -26. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. -30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY