* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 84 87 90 96 97 97 96 97 95 91 83 V (KT) LAND 85 84 85 74 75 74 74 75 74 75 73 69 61 V (KT) LGE mod 85 80 77 68 67 69 79 86 87 85 82 78 73 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 6 4 3 3 11 15 10 18 13 22 14 SHEAR DIR 315 112 242 282 165 261 347 306 343 360 1 1 15 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 157 157 156 156 154 152 152 153 151 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 144 143 140 137 133 133 134 131 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -49.1 -48.8 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 63 58 56 56 61 56 61 59 64 62 64 65 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 25 25 26 27 28 32 32 34 36 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 59 53 54 65 59 52 36 42 32 23 33 200 MB DIV 31 37 11 -9 4 41 13 14 36 -37 5 -14 7 LAND (KM) -42 14 10 -10 10 52 206 356 419 311 211 189 129 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.3 27.2 27.9 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 79.1 80.2 81.2 82.2 83.8 85.2 86.5 87.7 89.2 90.9 92.4 93.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 36 118 99 4 66 108 145 70 35 54 51 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -6. -4. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -1. 2. 5. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 10. 6. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -1. 2. 5. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 10. 6. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2051.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY