* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 56 62 67 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 56 62 67 69 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 48 55 63 69 72 72 SHEAR (KTS) 4 9 8 7 2 5 9 4 9 8 16 16 18 SHEAR DIR 291 36 69 83 69 1 319 291 305 267 269 260 272 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 128 129 129 132 136 137 138 140 138 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 119 119 119 122 125 125 126 126 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 50 48 49 48 48 47 48 51 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -13 -21 -28 -32 -21 -23 -15 -9 -7 -17 -11 200 MB DIV -8 0 -7 -7 5 -12 15 -6 10 0 -1 -7 17 LAND (KM) 1727 1708 1697 1677 1657 1584 1450 1364 1213 1094 964 893 819 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.9 45.8 46.7 47.5 49.3 51.1 52.8 54.4 55.7 57.2 58.2 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 23 19 24 31 25 32 39 37 41 46 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 31. 37. 42. 44. 46. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 23. 31. 37. 42. 44. 46. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY