* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 38 35 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS 18 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 38 35 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 41 37 35 33 31 30 26 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 17 22 22 15 9 10 12 17 14 25 18 17 10 SHEAR DIR 63 60 86 102 113 90 167 118 138 127 173 144 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.8 28.6 29.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 131 130 126 125 127 132 139 148 158 167 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 4 3 5 4 8 7 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 71 70 67 67 60 55 53 46 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 71 68 57 38 29 28 28 24 35 38 51 40 200 MB DIV 51 37 11 15 15 4 20 29 22 26 -2 27 5 LAND (KM) 475 441 422 413 417 393 292 199 139 65 -7 14 68 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.7 113.7 113.2 112.7 112.0 111.5 110.7 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -28. -25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -30. -27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED