* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 84 89 94 98 99 98 92 87 83 74 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 84 78 86 91 91 90 85 79 75 66 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 76 80 85 86 92 92 90 88 83 79 74 SHEAR (KTS) 1 4 4 1 4 10 8 13 9 20 16 17 10 SHEAR DIR 237 201 253 29 3 310 324 322 2 13 25 348 327 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 158 156 154 152 152 153 151 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 145 144 139 135 133 133 134 131 131 127 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -49.9 -48.8 -49.3 -48.9 -48.6 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 60 58 57 63 60 68 67 70 71 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 27 30 29 33 34 35 34 34 36 29 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 56 60 72 56 63 38 38 16 13 -8 7 200 MB DIV 48 38 10 0 30 -4 34 4 20 -29 0 -18 17 LAND (KM) 33 38 34 30 -4 108 260 386 393 291 208 187 100 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.3 81.3 82.2 83.1 84.6 85.8 87.0 88.2 89.7 91.4 92.9 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 80 104 102 2 5 68 112 106 39 30 47 41 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 28. 28. 24. 19. 16. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 29. 28. 22. 17. 13. 4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY