* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 42 53 61 68 75 79 81 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 42 53 61 68 75 79 81 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 23 27 32 39 48 58 67 74 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 7 5 8 3 6 3 3 8 5 11 7 SHEAR DIR 55 64 52 53 57 18 21 280 5 278 265 269 272 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 135 138 144 144 143 141 144 148 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 126 127 131 137 138 135 133 134 137 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 49 52 51 49 51 51 52 56 55 60 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -14 -19 -27 -22 -5 -2 14 2 13 -3 15 200 MB DIV 2 -5 -1 17 6 -7 18 15 25 16 19 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 1655 1615 1582 1528 1479 1303 1123 984 749 529 338 186 103 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.2 47.2 48.3 49.3 51.6 54.0 56.3 58.6 60.7 62.6 64.2 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 23 30 41 69 60 43 56 56 67 62 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 22. 32. 41. 48. 55. 59. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 22. 33. 41. 48. 55. 59. 61. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY