* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 35 33 28 25 19 15 DIS DIS 16 20 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 35 33 28 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 37 34 32 30 29 28 29 30 33 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 12 8 3 10 8 20 15 20 18 21 12 SHEAR DIR 56 89 123 121 105 147 150 133 122 159 189 208 212 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.7 27.5 28.5 29.9 30.5 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 129 127 125 124 128 136 147 162 167 167 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -49.7 -48.7 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 68 68 65 58 53 48 44 41 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 17 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 54 38 39 34 29 33 30 50 54 67 49 200 MB DIV 33 18 16 29 4 36 23 25 13 20 -4 21 -12 LAND (KM) 416 397 393 396 404 336 239 165 95 0 10 80 66 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.6 25.7 26.2 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.3 112.8 113.2 113.5 113.8 113.6 113.1 112.3 111.6 110.9 110.4 110.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -26. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -12. -17. -20. -26. -30. -30. -30. -29. -25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY