* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 78 83 86 88 91 94 92 87 78 68 59 V (KT) LAND 70 73 68 62 71 73 76 79 76 72 63 53 36 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 73 67 75 83 87 87 86 83 78 73 47 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 2 2 5 13 14 15 14 20 27 16 11 SHEAR DIR 267 265 325 320 289 344 314 354 24 15 28 27 4 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 154 152 154 156 156 154 150 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 142 140 136 133 136 138 137 134 131 122 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.2 -50.1 -51.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.3 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 10 11 9 10 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 59 60 64 64 70 66 69 68 72 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 29 29 30 29 32 36 36 37 32 26 17 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 53 62 66 59 58 41 19 -7 -7 15 13 200 MB DIV 39 11 0 20 17 -1 -12 13 -34 -1 -38 34 44 LAND (KM) 10 0 10 -14 52 215 335 422 357 275 233 60 -130 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.2 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.7 27.6 28.6 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.2 82.1 83.0 83.8 85.2 86.3 87.8 89.7 91.5 93.0 94.8 96.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 103 103 3 3 54 92 120 56 43 50 51 7 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 3. -2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 24. 23. 19. 10. 1. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 22. 24. 22. 17. 8. -2. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY