* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 33 26 18 15 DIS DIS 17 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 33 26 17 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 50 49 45 42 39 37 30 32 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 7 6 9 10 19 16 23 15 17 9 17 SHEAR DIR 97 117 115 69 96 152 123 161 152 191 172 205 183 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.6 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 128 127 128 130 137 144 153 162 168 168 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -48.9 -48.4 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 3 5 4 6 5 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 67 62 59 51 49 39 35 30 33 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 12 10 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 57 43 39 29 22 31 30 27 26 38 60 111 200 MB DIV 24 21 31 16 17 23 23 23 6 -18 6 3 53 LAND (KM) 400 397 404 396 379 268 156 63 -4 -30 22 85 11 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.8 26.2 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.8 113.2 113.4 113.6 113.4 112.9 112.3 111.8 111.3 110.8 110.3 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -16. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -16. -26. -30. -32. -31. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -32. -35. -36. -35. -33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY