* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 81 83 85 86 85 79 76 66 57 53 V (KT) LAND 70 73 66 74 76 78 79 78 73 69 59 50 34 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 66 72 76 82 83 82 79 75 72 71 42 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 6 7 14 18 19 26 24 15 18 14 14 SHEAR DIR 280 23 17 318 328 345 342 24 27 10 11 21 31 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 156 154 156 160 162 159 152 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 143 143 141 137 139 143 144 138 132 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.2 -49.7 -49.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 10 9 9 10 13 13 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 58 57 62 66 69 69 67 64 70 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 28 29 29 30 32 34 33 30 23 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 57 61 54 45 43 43 9 19 -7 25 57 200 MB DIV 15 13 27 25 -4 11 6 7 -44 7 -34 45 77 LAND (KM) 16 36 -19 42 125 302 377 389 371 290 186 27 -189 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.6 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.4 83.2 84.1 84.9 86.6 88.0 90.0 92.2 94.0 95.2 97.0 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 9 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 99 2 3 84 77 111 52 61 65 84 68 2 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 1. -5. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 11. 7. -3. -11. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 9. 6. -4. -13. -17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED