* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 41 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 16 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 41 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 33 29 28 31 33 28 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 9 13 11 12 20 20 26 17 19 18 17 SHEAR DIR 109 98 71 109 138 147 155 160 171 185 201 193 209 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.3 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 128 127 130 135 142 149 157 166 169 169 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -49.7 -49.0 -48.4 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 64 66 55 51 44 40 35 33 34 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 15 16 14 11 8 5 5 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 46 47 42 43 32 39 32 35 15 48 105 114 200 MB DIV 29 18 23 20 29 39 45 18 19 -24 4 34 47 LAND (KM) 393 388 387 358 320 191 77 12 -50 -20 61 9 -78 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.1 23.2 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.1 113.3 113.4 113.4 113.0 112.4 112.0 111.6 111.2 110.7 110.2 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -16. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -26. -28. -30. -28. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -31. -32. -30. -29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY