* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 80 82 87 88 85 81 76 69 62 58 V (KT) LAND 70 69 73 75 77 82 84 80 76 72 47 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 70 61 71 75 78 83 85 85 83 81 56 36 29 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 8 15 11 17 18 23 20 14 18 16 12 SHEAR DIR 22 299 300 311 324 335 20 32 41 20 331 354 32 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 154 155 160 162 164 152 145 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 141 139 138 138 143 147 148 136 127 127 129 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -48.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 8 12 10 14 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 57 62 62 67 63 68 70 71 74 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 33 31 31 30 35 37 34 33 29 24 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 55 62 49 53 54 51 44 46 61 52 61 81 200 MB DIV 28 31 15 -14 2 -12 33 -50 -3 -20 32 58 66 LAND (KM) 25 2 83 155 233 349 411 396 310 98 -98 -251 -354 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.7 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.4 27.8 28.2 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.4 84.3 85.1 85.9 87.4 89.4 91.6 94.1 96.3 98.3 99.8 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 70 81 111 83 56 66 85 33 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 3. -1. -5. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 10. 12. 18. 19. 16. 12. 8. 1. -6. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 18. 15. 11. 6. -1. -8. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY