* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 33 30 28 25 28 28 26 26 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 12 13 10 10 21 17 24 27 22 28 34 36 SHEAR DIR 68 60 103 143 150 130 173 162 210 205 235 218 240 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.9 29.1 30.1 30.7 30.6 29.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 126 126 125 131 142 154 164 170 170 163 140 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -48.5 -48.2 -47.6 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 7 5 9 5 10 3 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 63 60 51 46 41 36 33 31 38 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 12 9 5 5 4 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 56 47 43 20 22 24 32 23 33 57 97 82 200 MB DIV 32 32 22 17 23 30 28 16 -9 13 -6 45 29 LAND (KM) 450 426 387 337 287 156 7 -49 38 9 -101 -250 -400 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.5 23.5 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.6 28.8 30.0 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 113.7 113.8 113.7 113.6 112.9 112.2 111.6 111.2 110.7 110.1 109.4 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -25. -28. -30. -33. -35. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -27. -31. -31. -32. -34. -38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED