* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 73 76 78 79 76 75 70 66 66 59 V (KT) LAND 65 73 76 79 82 83 84 82 81 76 58 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 71 73 75 79 81 82 82 82 67 39 31 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 10 12 11 16 14 19 11 12 11 10 8 SHEAR DIR 15 325 306 318 342 3 15 26 26 15 336 305 192 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 154 158 162 164 160 148 143 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 138 138 141 145 147 142 129 122 125 126 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -48.7 -49.3 -48.5 -48.8 -48.3 -48.9 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 12 9 7 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 62 61 59 64 63 66 68 68 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 31 32 34 34 34 34 33 28 25 25 18 850 MB ENV VOR 53 62 54 60 63 48 53 42 62 53 72 89 14 200 MB DIV 49 40 -6 -11 3 2 19 -62 18 -11 65 49 29 LAND (KM) -13 59 140 222 302 356 433 419 261 95 -31 -185 -314 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.9 27.8 28.6 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.2 85.0 85.8 86.6 88.3 90.2 92.4 94.6 96.4 97.6 98.9 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 77 77 107 109 57 81 62 85 28 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. 10. 7. 4. 3. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 11. 10. 5. 1. 1. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY