* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 57 68 77 83 89 91 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 57 68 76 82 87 90 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 56 73 83 90 94 93 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 6 3 2 3 4 2 11 6 8 14 SHEAR DIR 211 230 287 323 340 279 82 235 214 251 256 343 56 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 148 148 149 152 155 153 152 150 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 149 145 146 145 147 148 143 140 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 49 49 48 56 50 51 48 49 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -6 -2 0 -4 13 6 4 -4 -9 -29 -13 200 MB DIV -8 -13 18 23 29 23 16 29 8 -12 -4 -45 9 LAND (KM) 1103 982 867 775 702 575 309 67 44 71 33 33 20 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.0 20.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.8 55.1 56.5 57.8 60.5 62.9 65.1 67.0 68.6 69.9 71.0 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 78 72 83 66 69 76 74 70 74 78 74 16 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 20. 31. 42. 51. 57. 62. 65. 68. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 32. 43. 52. 58. 64. 66. 65. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY