* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 30 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 29 25 27 26 25 26 26 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 12 12 11 24 21 24 18 27 26 34 46 SHEAR DIR 51 86 123 128 138 145 170 189 223 234 241 244 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.9 29.3 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.0 27.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 130 132 142 156 164 168 171 165 142 92 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.4 -48.2 -47.3 -47.3 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 61 58 48 43 35 25 25 25 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 11 7 4 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 49 39 36 20 21 33 29 26 6 37 32 5 -65 200 MB DIV 35 21 23 28 25 39 -3 18 -17 -12 11 36 1 LAND (KM) 410 381 351 301 251 85 -14 41 80 -68 -230 -448 -632 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.6 24.9 25.8 26.4 27.7 29.6 31.4 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.2 113.2 113.0 112.7 111.7 111.0 110.6 110.5 109.9 109.1 108.1 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 4 5 9 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -27. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -11. -16. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -11. -18. -25. -25. -25. -30. -35. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -9. -17. -25. -32. -31. -29. -32. -37. -48. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY