* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 75 78 83 84 80 80 72 66 65 54 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 75 78 83 84 80 80 57 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 71 73 78 81 82 82 65 39 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 5 13 11 6 12 13 12 14 7 9 15 14 35 SHEAR DIR 268 308 323 347 323 335 15 47 7 336 293 262 216 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.1 25.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 154 155 160 162 162 152 144 138 111 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 138 137 138 144 146 145 134 126 120 96 83 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -48.7 -48.7 -48.2 -47.7 -48.8 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 9 10 8 11 10 13 5 1 700-500 MB RH 61 60 64 64 60 63 62 64 65 67 64 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 31 34 35 39 37 33 34 28 23 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR 67 59 58 68 56 46 48 39 57 25 26 15 -10 200 MB DIV 50 21 2 19 20 8 -13 -4 -34 -9 53 105 104 LAND (KM) 50 125 206 289 341 404 404 348 168 -54 -278 -459 -609 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.1 27.0 28.5 30.5 32.6 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.8 85.5 86.3 87.1 89.1 91.4 93.6 95.6 97.1 98.0 98.0 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 78 68 99 113 94 57 68 88 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. 1. -5. -8. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 12. 17. 18. 14. 14. 8. 2. 1. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 19. 15. 15. 7. 1. 0. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 90.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY