* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 58 70 78 84 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 58 70 78 84 88 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 58 70 80 87 89 89 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 7 3 2 3 6 3 6 8 8 17 7 SHEAR DIR 224 292 325 337 290 22 180 243 209 284 301 20 42 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 146 145 147 148 149 148 146 145 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 143 141 140 140 139 137 134 130 126 125 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 47 51 50 50 55 54 57 52 55 49 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -4 -2 -5 3 2 0 -15 -11 -16 9 13 200 MB DIV -14 16 24 26 14 13 4 16 -27 -5 -40 24 -31 LAND (KM) 1006 910 825 772 739 522 328 191 196 255 300 267 236 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 54.9 56.1 57.3 58.5 60.8 62.6 64.3 65.5 66.5 67.1 67.5 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 71 79 67 64 61 66 38 64 68 64 65 67 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 33. 44. 52. 58. 62. 65. 67. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 33. 45. 53. 59. 63. 66. 65. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY