* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 36 32 28 26 26 22 19 18 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 33 32 27 24 25 26 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 36 31 33 33 30 28 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 8 14 13 18 19 15 17 11 16 16 SHEAR DIR 88 126 129 147 129 165 167 212 201 253 223 265 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.9 30.6 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 134 137 141 153 170 168 168 168 169 169 165 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -49.8 -48.5 -47.8 -47.1 -47.9 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 7 5 8 6 9 5 9 3 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 63 58 48 47 41 28 26 25 24 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 11 8 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 32 36 34 38 42 34 35 30 38 0 1 200 MB DIV 19 17 17 27 41 24 32 0 17 -29 -9 9 1 LAND (KM) 384 324 261 188 116 -20 61 19 -4 -39 -33 0 39 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 24.4 25.7 26.6 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 112.9 112.5 112.1 111.7 111.1 110.0 109.8 110.1 110.2 110.7 111.8 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 6 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -14. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -18. -21. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -18. -21. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY