* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/10/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 80 82 86 84 84 80 73 65 60 48 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 80 82 86 84 84 80 46 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 75 77 79 83 85 85 83 48 33 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 12 12 14 11 18 16 15 7 9 16 47 SHEAR DIR 300 320 323 319 345 4 27 32 7 358 352 249 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.6 28.6 27.8 24.8 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 154 156 162 164 159 146 145 134 105 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 138 140 146 147 143 129 125 115 92 83 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.0 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -48.9 -48.9 -49.2 -48.2 -48.8 -49.4 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 10 10 8 9 10 11 9 3 0 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 59 62 66 65 66 67 71 67 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 32 35 36 37 34 35 34 28 21 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 53 58 60 64 56 58 48 52 54 23 7 -8 -51 200 MB DIV 46 29 26 36 15 11 -1 0 -13 12 67 140 68 LAND (KM) 99 175 255 315 345 426 406 275 41 -189 -351 -503 -723 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.6 27.9 29.5 31.0 33.3 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.4 86.1 87.0 87.8 89.9 92.0 94.1 96.4 97.9 98.5 97.7 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 9 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 71 90 115 98 72 83 63 82 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 0. -5. -10. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 14. 13. 11. 4. -4. -9. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 14. 14. 10. 3. -5. -10. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED