* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 91 93 93 93 89 80 71 63 52 40 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 91 93 93 93 89 65 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 89 91 93 94 93 90 69 40 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 12 12 14 18 14 12 9 11 4 25 25 SHEAR DIR 326 320 310 342 8 24 25 32 4 353 28 254 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.3 25.3 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 156 158 162 163 152 144 141 108 94 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 140 142 146 146 135 126 123 93 80 78 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -49.7 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -48.6 -49.0 -48.3 -48.4 -50.2 -49.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 10 9 10 8 11 9 12 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 57 62 64 62 64 64 70 71 66 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 34 35 38 38 37 38 36 27 20 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 59 53 56 44 45 66 50 19 -9 -51 -61 200 MB DIV 53 42 33 13 6 -27 8 -38 32 19 105 131 7 LAND (KM) 185 268 344 362 395 388 352 167 -58 -268 -467 -593 -616 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.3 27.1 28.4 30.3 32.9 34.4 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.1 86.8 87.8 88.7 90.8 93.2 95.5 97.3 98.1 97.7 97.3 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 11 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 90 116 103 73 49 66 80 67 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -5. -11. -14. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 10. 0. -9. -16. -28. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 9. 0. -9. -17. -28. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY