* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 22 23 22 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 20 21 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 14 15 15 17 20 30 26 31 28 38 36 SHEAR DIR 122 160 135 159 175 171 208 194 219 210 227 214 245 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.5 29.2 30.6 30.9 30.6 30.2 29.3 27.7 25.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 142 148 156 170 170 169 165 156 139 112 89 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.2 -49.0 -48.4 -46.9 -47.7 -47.7 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 8 7 6 9 6 10 6 9 4 5 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 56 54 53 49 44 39 43 58 59 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 30 39 48 61 47 38 59 100 91 47 27 200 MB DIV 16 12 44 37 30 46 16 37 3 38 40 89 2 LAND (KM) 253 186 118 38 0 51 -35 -122 -197 -324 -438 -417 -490 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 28.3 29.2 30.4 31.4 32.5 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 111.9 111.5 111.1 110.6 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.1 108.7 108.3 108.9 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 32. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -19. -24. -30. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -12. -15. -18. -23. -28. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -16. -18. -22. -27. -34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED