* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 95 96 99 100 98 90 84 75 71 59 47 V (KT) LAND 85 91 95 96 99 100 98 90 54 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 94 95 96 97 95 92 56 36 29 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 14 14 11 15 12 7 3 13 10 19 17 SHEAR DIR 313 293 326 358 23 13 17 347 111 297 234 255 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.0 26.1 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 157 158 161 159 147 143 136 114 100 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 138 140 142 144 142 128 123 115 97 86 83 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.2 -49.1 -48.6 -47.9 -47.2 -47.8 -48.0 -48.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 10 9 9 10 11 9 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 62 63 65 68 69 69 68 68 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 36 37 35 36 36 37 30 29 26 27 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 74 58 50 52 57 43 63 56 44 42 17 -9 -5 200 MB DIV 48 50 41 20 43 -19 11 -27 28 76 157 74 77 LAND (KM) 251 334 371 402 400 353 261 67 -125 -282 -403 -500 -613 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.9 29.2 30.7 32.3 33.8 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.6 87.4 88.4 89.4 91.6 94.0 96.0 97.3 97.8 97.5 96.5 94.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 110 106 90 45 51 68 78 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 12. 4. 0. -8. -12. -24. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 11. 14. 15. 13. 5. -1. -10. -14. -26. -38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY