* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 28 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 26 29 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 13 13 12 31 34 45 44 47 39 38 N/A SHEAR DIR 170 136 147 191 188 195 217 214 222 231 236 251 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.8 28.4 29.1 30.0 30.9 30.4 28.8 24.4 21.7 20.4 20.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 147 155 165 171 169 152 106 77 62 57 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -48.5 -47.3 -47.3 -48.7 -48.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 3 2 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 53 49 49 47 41 39 46 49 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 45 56 64 78 58 41 14 23 16 4 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 37 33 19 43 51 18 14 14 35 33 6 N/A LAND (KM) 200 129 58 -6 52 -3 -147 -339 -430 -522 -634 -643 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.0 23.4 24.3 25.1 26.8 29.0 30.8 32.8 34.3 35.6 36.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 111.6 111.1 110.7 110.3 109.7 109.6 109.2 108.9 108.9 108.8 109.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 4 3 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 26. 23. 19. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -16. -28. -37. -43. -47. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -29. -45. -59. -63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -17. -29. -44. -58. -62. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY