* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 95 97 98 98 88 79 74 62 49 32 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 95 97 98 98 75 43 32 28 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 85 87 89 91 93 95 95 79 44 32 28 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 10 5 8 11 8 7 1 9 37 48 66 SHEAR DIR 285 316 344 314 302 14 351 42 41 171 222 231 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 25.3 23.1 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 159 159 153 145 138 109 94 88 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 137 139 142 143 135 125 120 97 84 79 78 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -50.3 -50.0 -48.9 -48.8 -48.5 -48.3 -46.8 -47.0 -48.2 -48.1 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 10 10 7 11 9 11 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 65 62 66 66 68 71 66 53 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 38 35 37 36 38 39 34 28 30 28 25 17 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 51 56 43 56 65 46 33 18 15 20 -42 200 MB DIV 58 42 44 62 3 15 -11 -3 13 102 131 74 -6 LAND (KM) 326 390 422 384 355 319 152 -27 -211 -396 -706 -940 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.6 27.5 28.8 30.5 33.0 36.1 38.7 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.2 88.0 89.0 90.0 92.4 94.9 96.3 96.7 95.9 94.3 92.1 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 12 10 8 11 15 16 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 116 98 50 34 52 49 55 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 12. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -2. -8. -7. -8. -10. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 4. -4. -8. -19. -32. -51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 3. -6. -11. -23. -36. -53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY