* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 14 11 18 38 39 47 47 49 43 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 178 195 193 186 215 209 216 221 239 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.5 29.3 30.2 30.8 30.6 29.7 26.1 23.2 21.2 20.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 149 157 167 171 171 162 124 93 71 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -48.9 -48.2 -46.2 -47.5 -48.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 9 6 11 4 7 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 54 51 51 49 47 36 42 45 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 57 68 77 64 54 2 7 0 -55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 32 19 45 47 18 31 1 13 8 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 38 10 70 47 -131 -291 -467 -548 -642 -644 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.4 25.3 26.1 28.3 30.1 32.1 33.5 34.9 35.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.1 110.6 110.2 109.8 109.3 108.8 108.2 107.9 107.8 108.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 43/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 23. 23. 20. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -22. -35. -45. -49. -54. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -12. -22. -38. -55. -61. -66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -14. -25. -39. -56. -62. -66. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY