* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 89 90 90 85 79 71 66 54 40 24 V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 89 90 90 85 49 34 29 28 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 87 88 89 90 89 52 34 29 27 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 7 12 13 14 9 5 5 24 45 60 73 SHEAR DIR 304 5 330 309 359 14 360 21 211 224 247 257 274 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.3 25.8 23.9 23.1 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 157 159 159 159 149 141 113 99 94 93 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 140 143 143 141 130 122 99 87 84 83 84 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.1 -49.0 -48.6 -49.0 -48.4 -48.5 -47.6 -48.3 -49.2 -49.6 -51.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 11 10 9 9 9 10 7 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 63 62 60 62 63 67 67 67 57 52 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 35 37 35 37 38 35 31 26 29 26 23 17 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 42 34 38 48 54 47 22 7 -15 -60 -126 200 MB DIV 41 44 48 1 0 -9 -34 27 42 142 58 33 -49 LAND (KM) 384 411 392 355 324 273 54 -170 -368 -575 -719 -900 -791 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 27.0 28.3 30.2 32.6 34.9 36.8 38.8 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.0 88.8 90.0 91.2 93.5 95.4 96.4 96.2 94.4 91.3 88.3 84.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 11 10 11 13 14 16 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 98 54 33 52 66 68 13 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -9. -15. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 11. 8. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -8. -10. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -5. -12. -16. -28. -43. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -6. -14. -19. -31. -45. -61. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED