* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 23 22 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 24 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 11 24 30 29 46 53 58 49 47 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 145 184 173 173 192 212 205 213 228 228 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.4 30.2 30.8 31.0 30.3 28.7 24.2 22.0 20.7 20.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 158 167 171 172 169 152 105 81 66 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.5 -48.8 -47.6 -46.9 -48.4 -48.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 6 4 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 54 53 52 47 43 39 49 49 45 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 73 74 74 49 36 39 49 30 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 28 38 49 42 25 -3 26 31 36 26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 34 -9 82 8 -37 -250 -425 -629 -731 -853 -867 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.7 26.6 28.8 30.8 33.0 34.5 36.0 36.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.1 109.6 109.3 108.9 108.2 107.6 106.7 106.3 105.9 106.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 23. 23. 20. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -11. -26. -40. -52. -57. -62. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. -1. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -15. -28. -45. -64. -69. -73. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -17. -31. -45. -63. -68. -72. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY